Migration – the movement of people into and out of a geographic area – impacts a state’s economy and real estate market. Because birth and death rates are usually low and stable, migration often accounts for the largest changes in population growth, decline and redistribution.

Migration patterns have a big impact on real estate professionals, and Florida has one of the greatest levels of domestic migration. Florida’s total population was 18.3 million in 2008, and, according to the Census Bureau estimates, will reach 19.3 million by July 2010, and approximately 23.4 million by 2020. The Census Bureau estimates a 79 percent increase in total population between 2000 and 2030, ranking Florida third highest in projected population growth.

Twenty-two percent of the state’s population in 2007 was under 18 years old, and 17 percent was 65 years and older. By 2015, 21 percent of the state’s population is projected to be under 18 years of age, and 19.5 percent will be 65 years and older. Furthermore, Florida is a favorite state for many second home buyers, both from other areas in the U.S. as well as from abroad. While the state still attracts retirees, it also appeals to many young college graduates.

A Florida Association of Realtors®’ study conducted by the National Association of Realtors® analyzes mobility and migration trends for Florida, and includes information on recent second home purchase activity. It includes projections for future migration patterns, including expected housing demand by different demographic segments, states with high volumes of in-migration to Florida, and expected changes in the existing home sales.

The report also compares Florida second home purchases to other states; mortgage data on second home purchases compared with primary residences; and recent changes in purchases by income and race.

The complete study is available on floridarealtors.org at:
http://www.floridarealtors.org/LegislativeCenter/Research/index.cfm

© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

International buyers confident of Fla. recovery

MIAMI – June 15, 2009 – Gerson Lehman Group reports that international realty buyers believe the Florida housing market is poised for recovery, and they are paying close attention to distressed properties in the state. The report says these international buyers view homes in the United States as “desirable, profitable and secure” investments.

“Those who delay buying their dream home in Florida may soon find that they have to pay considerably more for the same property in just a few months,” advises the report’s author, Howard Liggett, president of Distressed Real Estate Consulting Services.

Liggett cites data from the National Association of Realtors® and the Florida Association of Realtors® indicating that 25 percent of international buyers are Canadian, 21 percent are British, and 21 percent are western European.

Source: ?Halifax International Expat Focus (06/12/2009) Musk, Jamie

© Copyright 2009 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

Record low mortgage interest rates boosted pending home sales for the third consecutive month, with some benefit now from the first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7 percent to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2 percent above April 2008 when it was 87.5.

“Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by Nov. 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers.”

NAR President Charles McMillan says there are numerous buyer assistance programs around the country. “Some states are offering bridge loans that allow first-time buyers to use the tax credit for downpayment and closing costs, but there are many other local government and nonprofit programs available to buyers, depending on location.

“Just last week, HUD announced that qualifying buyers can use the tax credit for closing costs on FHA loans to buy down the interest rate or make a larger downpayment.”

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) is in record territory. The index rose to 174.8 in April from an upwardly revised 171.9 in March, and was the second highest monthly reading on record after peaking at 176.9 in January of this year. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income. Tracking began in 1970.

A median-income family, earning $60,900, could afford a home costing $296,800 in April with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of that amount. The affordable price was well above the median existing single-family home price in April, which was $169,800.

Yun cautions that the reporting sample for pending home sales is smaller than that of existing-home sales, so it is subject to greater variability.

“In addition, the relationship between contracts on pending home sales and closings on existing-home sales is taking longer than in the past for several reasons,” Yun says. “Mortgage processing time has increased, it is taking many months to close on those homes requiring short sales with lender approval, and some sales are falling through at the last moment.”

The total number of existing-home sales is expected to improve but with dramatic local market variation in the timing of recovery. “The market has already bottomed in some areas, but this is an unusual housing cycle with some areas improving rapidly while others languish or decline,” Yun says.

© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®