Real Estate Blog

Home prices in South Florida “easily” could be 20 percent to 30 percent higher by 2013, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Addressing local real estate agents this week during a conference at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables, Lawrence Yun countered the persistent pessimism of experts who insist the region’s housing market will continue to struggle before rebounding slowly during the next few years.

USA Today recently identified Yun as one of the nation’s top 10 analysts on a list measuring accuracy in forecasting.

Yun called 2008 a “year of cleanup” and says the second half will be better than the first because mortgage markets are improving nationwide and across South Florida. Foreign investors and Baby Boomers will boost home sales during the rest of 2008, he said.

Although year-over-year home prices have been falling steadily in Palm Beach and Broward counties since the summer of 2006, Yun said price increases could happen here again as soon as this year.

A decade from now, sellers and agents will look back on this as a “small blip on the radar screen,” Yun said. “The long-term fundamentals are terrific.”

During his presentation, Yun described the 30-month housing slump nationwide as a “short-term phenomenon” and said the economic climate is not leading to a recession. He also said there soon could be a shortage of housing because builders have cut back production during the past few years.

Newsweek this month called Yun the “Little Orphan Annie of forecasters” for his consistently upbeat predictions in the face of dire market conditions.

Citing an oversupply of homes for sale and property tax and insurance concerns, Levin said there’s nothing to indicate that South Florida’s housing picture will improve as quickly and dramatically as Yun suggests.


Area housing experts agree that sales will pick up once prices drop to a level that’s acceptable to most buyers.

Real estate agents attending Thursday’s conference sponsored by the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches said they’re seeing increased activity in the market. They say home buyers are getting mortgages, despite reports of tighter lending requirements at South Florida banks.

“For the right person with the right credentials, the money’s still there,” said Terri Bersach, a Coldwell Banker agent in Miami.

Copyright © 2008 South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Paul Owers. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

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